PSV Eindhoven will score tonight.

And Arsenal will have to give one of the performances of the season so far to progress to the next round.

PSV are one of those European teams who are efficient, organised and generally under-rated and that was our downfall in the first leg when we conceded the lead in Holland.

Would we have been so sloppy if we were against Real Madrid, Barcelona or AC Milan?

And a big problem is that in Heurelho Gomes they have a goalkeeper who is immense. Arsenal will have to be super-clinical if they are to beat him tonight.

How many times have we seen this before? Arsenal have dominated at home and remain undefeated, but we have a problem (or possibly curse) or conceding at the Emirates.

Matthew Taylor, Rafael van der Vaart, Denny Landzaat and Shabani Nonda are just some of the players who have pulled out spectacular goals when Arsenal have been seemingly in the driving seat.

So Arsenal will have to be careful.

PSV can sit back and they will get chances to steal a goal on the break and even if Arsenal score they still know one goal will settle the tie.

But even though I think PSV will score, I still believe that Arsenal have enough at home to progress – and we have a knack of putting the pressure on late in games at the Emirates, just like against United, Wigan and Spurs in the Carling Cup.

The big news is that Thierry has been considered fit enough to start tonight if Wenger sees fit. Only Wenger knows if Henry can do a job tonight and I’m sure his decision hasn’t been helped by the long-term injury to Van Persie and the lack of finishing from Baptista and Aliadiere against Blackburn last week.

Eboue and Hoyte are out, so it looks like Djourou will fill in at right back. Senderos, Flamini and Rosicky are also out so you would expect Freddie and Hleb to play on the wings tonight and stretch a defensive PSV side. Toure returns from domestic suspension and will play alongside Gallas with Clichy on the left.

Diaby is also in the squad but with Freddie’s clinical finishing you would think the Swede would start tonight despite just coming back from injury recently.

Gilberto is expected to go back into midfield after a couple of games at centre-back and scored a good headed goal against Reading at the weekend and I have a feeling that we’ll need his aerial presence tonight!

Walcott, Baptista and Aliadiere are all in the squad as well but you would expect Thierry’s dancing partner Adebayor to start against Eindhoven. He has so much energy, can create all sorts of problems and hopefully it will be one of those nights where the front two click.

Arsene recognises that we have to be ruthless when we’re presented with chances, and lets hope we’ve been saving our goals for tonight after missing numerous chances against Blackburn, Chelsea and PSV in the first leg.

There is no doubt Arsenal will create enough chances tonight – but will they take them?

Arsenal are in a win-win situation this weekend in the Carling Cup Final because of the way they have approached this competition and the performances the young players have put in over the last few months.

There is seemingly no pressure for the young guns against a Chelsea side which most would assume would be at full strength.

Arsenal’s kids have played some really outstanding football in the Carling Cup, especially against Everton, Liverpool and Spurs on the road to the final and in the process getting all the plaudits – and rightly so.

Chelsea on the other hand have stumbled to the final, without anything worthy of note.

I personally can’t even recall a single team they’ve beaten to make the final!

The progress of certain players like Aliadiere, Denilson, Traore and Hoyte this season has shown that the future is bright for Arsenal Football Club.

It might be and old cliché but even if Arsenal’s kids lose on Sunday they will be seen by many across the land as the success story and therefore the winners of this years Carling Cup.

Good luck boys and I’ll be seeing you in Cardiff!

Looking at the last 3 fixtures I noticed the scorelines of 1-1, 2-1 and then 3-1 against Bolton in midweek (see the previous fixtures in the graphic above).

So surely Arsenal will continue the pattern and beat Blackburn 4-1 at the Emirates?

Of course, when I first thought about it I realised it was just a simply play on numbers but then I thought – is it actually so crazy?

Arsenal have scored 29 goals in their last 11 games, and in 5 of those have scored 3 or more goals. And strangely enough in the last 11 Arsenal have conceded 12 goals – on average that’s about 1 goal per game.

The numbers never lie.

And in the last 11 Arsenal have only managed to keep a solitary clean sheet – although that was in the game against Blackburn Rovers at Ewood Park.

And remember the two games against Blackburn Rovers so far this season?

Arsenal won 6-2 and 2-0.

And average score of 4-1 if I’m not mistaken?

The maths suggest it will be 4-1 and I’ll even put a flutter on it.

Don’t even think about messing with maths.

The Bogey Team v The Comeback Kings…

Myles has touched on Thierry Henry not playing in the first half these days and I made the point a while ago that with Henry’s age he is a more calculating player – picking his moments to hurt teams, with the goals against Blackburn Rovers, Manchester United and Liverpool prime examples.

But is this damaging the way the team plays?

Arsenal are renowned for hitting teams as soon as the first whistle blows and over the years we almost come to expect Arsenal to score within the first 10 minutes.

But have Arsenal lost this cutting edge early in the games?

The biggest problem is without Arsenal having a decent first half we are always susceptible to conceding the opening goal and making things hard for themselves.

And in the last few games, against Spurs (twice), Wigan, Manchester United, Bolton and Middlesbrough we have been poor in the first half and conceded the first goal (with the exception of the second Spurs game).

Can Arsenal keep this up?

It takes so much energy and mental strength to comeback and I for one fear that if Bolton score first in the FA Cup tie we might not have enough to claw yet another game back in our favour.

Saying that though, the 12 comebacks Arsenal have had this season – and the one against Manchester United in particular – is an impressive statistic, but is Arsenal’s luck about to change?

Bolton know how to get a result against us and while people will complain that they are too rough the fact is they get the results, and they are only one place below us in the Premiership table.

The early team news is that Jens Lehmann and Thierry Henry have been rested, and apart from the long-term absentees Arsenal will be at full strength with Freddie and Hleb returning to the squad.

And with Adebayor starting on the bench against Wigan it looks like he will start against Bolton.

But as the season has gone on as well as the game on Sunday – it’s clear that Adebayor and Henry are the best partnership, while Baptista and Aliadiere are the next. And for the performances against Liverpool and Spurs in the Carling Cup I hope Baptista and Aliadiere start together, but that looks unlikely.

The outcome of the game will depend on the return of Alexander Hleb, who will be the difference between the two teams. Arsenal have severely missed his excellent ball retention and penetrating passes which cause the oppostion all kinds of problems.

And I hope Arsene leaves out Walcott who has been ineffective and is just short of confidence. If he starts Bolton will cope with him easily.

Prediction?

If we can nick the first goal then I can see the game finishing 2-1 to Arsenal. But if we hit the self-destruct button and concede the opening goal then it’ll be a long, hard night for the Gunners!

Update: Does anyone actually know that Henry is not in the squad for the Bolton game?

Because apparently Arsenal News Review and Sam Allardyce don’t!